Wednesday, November 30, 2005
Josh Beckett's 4.08 ERA
Let's take a look at a few numbers to see how Josh Beckett would've done if he had pitched for the Red Sox in 2005. First, let's see some real numbers. In 2005 he had a 3.38 ERA, a 3.08 ERC, a 3.42 dERA, and a 3.45 RCERA. ERA is the normal measure of earned runs given up over 9 innings pitched that we all know and love. ERC is a statistic that measures what a pitcher's ERA is expected to be based on the hits and walks he gives up. dERA is based on the work done by Voros McCracken and measures a pitcher's ERA based entirely on the statistics that a pitcher controls and the defense does not (K's, BB's, HR's, and HBP's). RCERA is a pitcher's ERA based on the Runs Created by the batters facing the pitcher. All four are relatively close to each other and it should be possible to tailor the last three stats to see how he would've performed in the AL in a hitter's park.
I started off by park adjusting the number of doubles, triples, home runs, and hits that Beckett allowed at home. I used the park indices in the Bill James Handbook to calculate the number of those four stats that he would've allowed had he pitched half his games in Fenway instead of in Dolphins Stadium. Then I plugged those new numbers into the formulas for ERC, dERA, and RCERA. His numbers for those three went up to an ERC of 3.25, a dERA of 3.46, and a RCERA of 3.68; an increase of 0.17, 0.04, and 0.23 respectively. Judging by those three numbers we could probably expect Beckett's ERA to increase anywhere between 0.04 and 0.23 points giving him an ERA anywhere between 3.42 and 3.61 had he pitched in Fenway park. But what about the effects of the DH?
In 2005 Beckett held number 9 hitters to a .121/.188/.172, very similar to the line NL pitchers combined for in 2005, .150/.180/.190. My methods are far from perfect, but just for fun let's replace the 63 pitcher plate appearances against Josh Beckett with 80 DH appearances, assuming that the DH would be batting higher in the order, therefore getting more plate appearances. The average DH in the AL put up a .260/.335/.444 line in 2005. As a little side note, Baltimore DH's, lead mostly by Jay Gibbons, Sammy Sosa, Javy Lopez, and Raphael Palmeiro, had a .210/.277/.362 line. That was, by far, the worst in the AL despite the fact that they outslugged Oakland DH's by .010. But anyways, let's figure out ERC, dERA, and RCERA while keeping his stats park adjusted for Fenway, but adding in the effects of a DH. Doing that changes his numbers more than I expected. His ERC jumped to 3.87, his dERA to 3.82, and his RCERA to 4.36; a change over his original numbers by 0.79, 0.40, and 0.91 respectively.
The average change in the three stats I looked at and adjusted was 0.70 after adjusting for Fenway and replacing 63 pitcher plate appearances with 80 DH ones. What do all these numbers mean? Well, going by my math (which, I'll admit is a little bit shaky, but it might be a good estimation), Josh Beckett would've had a 4.08 ERA had he been with the Red Sox last year. Also, the Red Sox scored 5.62 runs per game last year which is actually lower than the 5.89 run support over nine innings that Beckett got. With the jump in ERA, support of one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and not much of a difference in run support it's probably a safe bet to say that had Beckett been in Boston last year his record would've been worse than the 15-8 he had in Florida.
This was by no means a way to try and prove that the Beckett trade was a bad one. I still love that trade. Beckett is going to get better as he matures and the rest of the deal still works out in Boston's favor. Beckett will be a great number 2 starter for the Red Sox over the next few years.
Nano Superlattice Technology Inc. (OTCBB Symbol: NSLT) is a nanotechnology company engaged in the coating of tools and components with nano structured PVD coatings for high-tech industries.
Nano utilizes Arc Bond Sputtering and Superlattice technology to apply multi-layers of super-hard elemental coatings on an array of precision products to achieve a variety of physical properties. The application of the coating on industrial products is designed to change their physical properties, improving a product's durability, resistance, chemical and physical characteristics as well as performance. Nano's super-hard alloy coating materials were especially developed for printed circuit board drills in response to special market requirements
The cutting of circuit boards causes severe wear on the cutting edge of drills and routers. With the increased miniaturization of personal electronics devices the dimensions of holes and cut aways are currently less than 0.2 mm. Nano coats tools with an ultra thin coating (only a few nanometers in thickness) of nitrides which can have a hardness of up to half that of diamond. This has proven to increase tool life by almost ten times. Nano plans to continue research and development into these techniques due to the vast application range for this type of nanotechnology
We believe that Nano is a company on the move. With today�s steady move towards miniaturization we feel that Nano is a company with the right product at the right time. It is our opinion that an investment in Nano will produce great returns for our readers.
Online Stock trading, in the New York Stock Exchange, and Toronto Stock Exchange, or any other stock market requires many hours of stock research. Always consult a stock broker for stock prices of penny stocks, and always seek proper free stock advice, as well as read a stock chart. This is not encouragement to buy stock, but merely a possible hot stock pick. Get a live stock market quote, before making a stock investment or participating in the stock market game or buying or selling a stock option.