Tuesday, March 29, 2005

worried about Wells?

Is it time to worry about David Wells? In four starts this spring he has an ERA approaching 8. Going by his numbers it looks like he's been hit pretty hard. No one really seems worried however. After throwing 83 pitches in yesterday's 9-5 win over the Phillies, Wells said he felt no fatigue. His next start is against the Yankees and that start counts. Opening Day is only five days away and Wells is going to have to forget his springtime numbers and begin getting guys out.

I'm not ready to panic about Wells. The guy is reliable. In 9 out of the last 10 years Wells has started 29 games or more. Only once in those ten years has he had a season shortened by injuries. He logs around 200 innings every year, doesn't walk anyone, and proves year after year that he's an asset for whatever team he's pitching on. Even this spring with as bad as Wells has appeared he has only walked two batters and only let up two homers. He's only struck out 10 in 17 innings, but that's always been the kind of guy that David Wells is. He lets the batters put the ball in play and relies on his defense to get the outs. He should do fine this year and his scary spring shouldn't be worrying Boston fans too much.

I'm not entirely worried about Wells....but then again I'm not exactly ready to trust the guy. Baseball Prospectus is only predicting the guy to go 118 innings. They think his already bad K-rate will drop, his walk rate will rise, and he'll let up more home runs. They're predicting a horrible year for David Wells. He's 42 and for all we know, he could still be on the Yankees payroll just like Ramiro Mendoza was the last couple of years. He has issues with his back, he's moving from a pitcher's park to a hitter's one, he's going from the NL to the AL, and he's drank more beer in his life than me and Kevin Millar combined. He should do fine this year. He always does. But what if he doesn't?

Wells is one of the things about this Red Sox team that has me worried the most. I have faith that Matt Clement will put up fantastic numbers. I think Wade Miller will give the team 20 starts, most of them of the quality variety. The offense will be huge the bullpen will be a strength and the team as a hole will compete for the division title. But the closer we get to the season the more I worry about David Wells and if he's going to help this team...or hurt them.

I'm only slightly worried about Wells, but lets put this into perspective. If Wells struggles, then he's Derek Lowe of 2004, with one exception. Derek Lowe wasn't going to be replaced by Wade Miller midseason due to struggles. Wells is getting paid more than say, Bronson Arroyo, but the Sox front office is not dumb enough to leave him out to dry if he just does not have it anymore...there is just too much at stake.
Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?